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COVID-19 peak may arrive mid-November as per studies

In a study conducted by researchers from an Operations Research Group constituted by the ICMR the COVID-19 peak may arrive mid-November in India.

COVID-19 peak may arrive mid-November as per studies
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Update: A news agency had on Sunday quoted ICMR to share the peak for COVID-19 will happen around November. However, now ICMR has denied publishing any such study.

In a study conducted by researchers from an Operations Research Group constituted by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), it is being stated that the extended lockdown has shifted the peak of the pandemic by an estimated 34 to 76 days. Therefore, the peak stage for the coronavirus in India has been delayed and might now arrive around the middle of November.

The study stated that the shift in the peak of the pandemic has helped decrease the number of infections by 69 to 97 per cent thereby allowing time for the healthcare system to scramble up resources and infrastructure. Even though the delay in the peak stage has strengthened public health measures, peaking in November could prove to be worrisome as there could be an insufficiency in the number of isolation centres, ICU beds and ventilators. 

According to the researches, with stable and continuous steps at increasing the infrastructure in different regions of the country, the impact of the peaking can be reduced. As per the model-based analysis for the coronavirus pandemic in India, with the additional capacity which has been built up for testing, treating and isolating patients during the lockdown period, the number of cases at the peak would come down by 70 per cent and the cumulative cases may come down by nearly 27 per cent. The researchers further added that the management of COVID-19 will have to conduct a dynamic review of policies and significant strengthening of the healthcare system.

According to the Union Health Ministry data, the country saw a record spike of 11,929 cases pushing India's COVID-19 caseload to 3,20,922 on Sunday while the death toll rose to 9,195 with an increase of 311 fatalities. India has registered more than 10,000 cases for the third day in a row and is the fourth worst-hit nation by the coronavirus outbreak.

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