The economists from the COVID-19 data lab at Mumbai University have predicted that Maharashtra and West Bengal have no fresh cases after May 21. Moreover, they suggest that Kerala, Himachal Pradesh, Assam, Odisha and Uttaranchal have already reached the end of the pandemic.
The team has examined the slowing of the doubling rate in many regions to arrive at these projections, the Times of India reported. The team has generated forecasts for the date on which the incidence of new cases will stop using logistic curves for each state. They have also measured the cases in certain urban centres in their assignments.
It was learnt that the study done by the Mumbai University data lab excludes Bihar. Neeraj Hatekar, head of the data lab at the Mumbai School of Economics and Public Policy, informed that the cases in Bihar are growing rapidly with a doubling period of four days.
“It would not be wise to estimate the point at which the curve will flatten there. However, in most states, the doubling rate has grown longer which has made it possible to statistically estimate the flattening of the curve,” Hatekar was quoted in a TOI report.
Neeraj Hatekar further informed that the doubling periods will fall even more in most states. The study states that in about 10 days, Delhi Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Haryana, Jharkhand, Jammu and Kashmir, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu and Telangana should also stop recording fresh coronavirus cases.
Along with this, by May 10, Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh will also be free of new cases, the study says. A significant factor in the control of infections in India has been the fact that the pandemic has been localised to a select number of urban clusters, Hatekar informed.
Of the total cases in Madhya Pradesh, 56 per cent come from Bhopal and Indore. Similarly, 55 per cent of the cases in Maharashtra come from Mumbai, Thane, Pune, Nashik and Nagpur which are the urban centres of the state. In Rajasthan, 41 per cent cases come from Jaipur, Jodhpur and Bharatpur. In Gujarat, 59 per cent of cases come from three cities.
Maharashtra has become the worst-hit state in India due to the coronavirus outbreak and has crossed the 9,000-mark. The state has reported almost 9,318 cases till now and the death toll has reached to 400. Of these, nearly 6,169 cases have been reported from Mumbai.
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