India could witness 2.87 lakh cases every day by the end of 2021: MIT study

While there have been multiple ongoing pieces of research across the globe, the researchers at Massachusetts Institute of Technology have opined that India might witness a huge surge in the number of cases of coronavirus. According to the study, India could be the worst-affected country in the world with 2.87 lakh cases every day by the end of winter 2021 without a vaccine.

Meanwhile, according to the Union Health Ministry data, India has witnessed 22,752 fresh cases of COVID-19 in a day with the caseload increasing to 7,42,417 on Wednesday, while the death toll climbed to 20,642 with 482 people succumbing to the contagious disease.

The above mentioned statistical analysis has been conducted at MIT by Hazhir Rahmandad, TY Lim and John Sterman of MIT’s Sloan School of Management. They have further added that the US will witness 95,400 cases per day, South Africa at 20,600, Iran at 17,000, Indonesia 13,200, UK with 4,200, Nigeria with 4,000, Turkey with 4,000, France at 3,300, and Germany at 3,000 cases. The world may witness 249 million (24.9 crores) cases and 1.75 million (17.5 lakh) deaths by spring 2021 in the 84 countries if there is an absence in treatment or vaccination.

The researchers at MIT have used the SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model to predict the numbers. The SEIR is a standard mathematical model used by epidemiologists for analysis. The study looks into three factors: One, current testing rates and response, two, if testing increases 0.1 per cent on a day-to-day basis from July 1 and three, if testing remains at current levels but contact rate or how many people are infected by one person, these parameters are taken into consideration.

According to the ICMR, a cumulative total of 1,04,73,771 samples have been tested up to July 7 with 2,62,679 samples being tested on Tuesday. As per reports, out of the 482 deaths reported in the last 24 hours, 224 are from Maharashtra, 65 from Tamil Nadu, 50 from Delhi, 25 from West Bengal, 18 from Uttar Pradesh, 17 from Gujarat, 15 from Karnataka, 13 from Andhra Pradesh, 11 from Rajasthan, 7 each from Bihar and Telangana, 6 from Punjab, 5 each from Jammu and Kashmir and Madhya Pradesh, 4 in Odisha, 3 from Haryana, 2 each from Jharkhand and Puducherry and 1 each in Chandigarh, Goa and Uttarakhand.