Experts warn that the city is likely to experience an increasing number of days with "Poor" and "Very Poor" air quality in the coming years during winter months, something that the city witnessed this season, especially during the months of November and December. The bright side, however, is that Mumbai's air pollution is likely to see a dip in the coming days under the influence of Cyclone Mandous' aftermath and with the wind speed over Mumbai expected to pick up.
CLIMATE CHANGE & AIR POLLUTION
Dr. Gufran Beig, Founder and Project Director, System of Air Quality Weather Forecasting and Research (SAFAR) under the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Ministry of Earth Sciences sharing the scientific analysis of air pollution problem for Mumbai due to drop in wind speed due to climatic factors said, “Over the last two months, there have been unprecedented changes in the weather scenario. Owing to the phenomenon of La Nina (cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific), India has been experiencing and will continue to experience more than unusual cooler and extended winter. In addition to this, the western part of India is influenced by the warming of the Mediterranean Sea. As a result, there are more than unusual calm winds across the Mumbai region and surrounding parts of western India. This has ensured that the dispersion of air pollutants being emitted from pollution-related activities does not happen swiftly despite Mumbai being surrounded by the ocean.”
Dr Beig also cautioned stating, “These changes are being witnessed and can be associated with the impacts of climate change, and such high pollution events are only expected to increase for Mumbai in coming years.”
WHAT IS DETERIORATING MUMBAI’S AIR?
The analysis of the prevailing poor air quality in Mumbai by SAFAR shows that emission levels from industry may not be the single factor responsible for poor air quality during November and December 2022. One cannot neglect emissions from construction activities in the city, which have led to high air pollution events.
“If we observe this event, the visibility across Mumbai took a hit during this period. This means both fine and coarse particulate matter was high in Mumbai’s air. Our data also indicates and validates that. If industries or refineries were the major sources of air pollution then only the fine particulate matter or PM2.5 would have been high. Thus, it is construction dust (part of residential emissions) which has led to an increase in PM 2.5 and PM10, worsening Mumbai’s air quality,” said Dr. Beig.
WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?
The fact is that during the past 40 days, between November 1 and December 10, Mumbai recorded 22 days in ‘poor’ and ‘very poor’ categories for air quality. Of these 22 days, the overall air quality in Mumbai during 4 days (December 5, 6, 7 and 8) was in the ‘very poor’ category.Whereas, in 2021 (during the same period November 1 to December 10), the number of poor days was only 6 while there were no very poor air days.From November 1 to December 10 in 2021, there were 18 days within the permissible limit for particulate matter (PM2.5) but between November 1 and December 10, 2022, there was only 1 day when the concentration of PM2.5 was within the permissible limit.“There is no doubt that the rise in air pollution for Mumbai and other parts of western India is unusual during this time frame of November and December. Mumbai has been reeling under a high pollution event. The issue this year is that the poor air quality has become prolonged despite Mumbai being blessed with sea on three sides ensuring quick dispersion of air pollutants,” said Dr. Gufran Beig.
NUMBER OF POOR & VERY POOR AIR QUALITY DAYS BETWEEN: NOV 1 TO DEC 10, 2022
Mumbai overall had a total of 22- Poor (18) & Very Poor (4) Air Quality daysThis means: Malad, Chembur, and Mazgaon were the three most polluted areas in Mumbai between November 1 and December 10, 2022, while Borivali, Navi Mumbai and Worli had the cleanest air during this period.
NUMBER OF POOR & VERY POOR AIR QUALITY DAYS BETWEEN DEC 1 TO DEC 10, 2022
Mumbai had 9- Poor (5) & Very Poor (4) Air Quality days
This means: Malad, BKC and Chembur were the three most polluted areas in Mumbai between December 1 and December 10, 2022 while Worli, Borivali, and Navi Mumbai had the cleanest air during this period.
SOURCES OF MUMBAI’S AIR POLLUTION
As per SAFAR, the last available source apportionment study done for Mumbai shows that:
30%: Transport sector's contribution to Mumbai’s pollution
18%: Industries contribution to Mumbai’s pollution
20%: Biofuel or residential emissions contribution to Mumbai’s pollution
15%: Windblown Dust contribution to Mumbai’s pollution
Remaining is weather-related factors including sea salt
SOLUTIONS: IMPLEMENT MUMBAI CLEAN AIR ACTION PLAN & PROVIDE HEALTH ADVISORY
Bhagwan Kesbhat, Founder Waatavaran Foundation:
“To protect Mumbai residents' health, the Government of Maharashtra and the local municipal authorities must develop a Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP) for Mumbai. A GRAP is a set of emergency measures that go into effect whenever the city's air quality hits a certain threshold. A need is also there to issue immediate health advisories to safeguard the health of Mumbaikars. Sectors including construction, rapidly expanding uncontrolled private vehicles in the transport sector, and industrial emissions all require regulation that adheres to strict standards and a precise mechanism. Additionally, Thane, Navi Mumbai, Kalyan, Dombivli, and the rest of the Mumbai Metropolitan Region must be included in a regional strategy to reduce air pollution.”
Dr. Gufran Beig, Founder and Project Director, SAFAR
“High air pollution events are becoming more common for Mumbai and in such a scenario, there is an immediate need for more public health advisories issued by the Municipal Corporation or the State Pollution Control Board to safeguard citizens. SAFAR has always been doing this since its inception giving health warnings as air quality deteriorates ensuring citizens take the right steps to protect their health and their loved ones. This needs to be done on priority.”
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