The BJP has won the assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh, but Maharashtra is a different kettle of fish. This mission appears to be more difficult than in 2014, when the BJP fought with the slogan "Kendra Mein Narendra (Modi), Maharashtra mein Devendra." This is because the BJP has to work with and control parties and players that are not affiliated with it because of the Mahayuti alliance.
Speaking about this scenario of Maharashtra’s politics, Political Analyst Sonu Kanojia from Kalyan, in a conversation with Mumbai Live, said, “Topics like who will become the next CM, what will be CM Eknath Shinde’s future, what will happen if Shinde is disqualified, and what will happen if 16 MLAs of the Shinde faction are disqualified will be discussed by the ruling government.”
“The fate of CM Eknath Shinde will be decided by December 31, 2023, and the fate of Deputy CM Ajit Pawar will be decided by January 31, 2024. There is a high chance that the rebel leaders of the Shinde faction and the Ajit Pawar faction might return to Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar’s side. This might happen because the BJP is stating that they will battle in elections under the leadership of Shinde, but if they contest elections under Shinde’s leadership, they might not win the elections. Hence, the BJP might not take this risk, and they will battle elections under PM Narendra Modi’s face,” he added.
Before each assembly election, which candidate will battle from which constituency is decided by the political party, and a list of candidates battling from different constituencies is released.
Sonu Kanojia said that now the BJP will decide which leader of the BJP, the Shinde & Ajit Pawar factions of the Shiv Sena, and the NCP will fight from which constituency of Maharashtra. The BJP might demand that those leaders contest and get votes on the BJP’s symbol. If those MPs, MLAs, and leaders win from their regions, they will be considered the BJP’s candidates only.
He added, “If we look at the BJP’s working pattern, it seems clear that the BJP kills its small, regional partners.” Giving an example of the BJP’s working pattern, he said the BJP has done the same with Shiv Sena in Maharashtra in the past, Nitish Kumar’s party in Bihar, Chandrababu Naidu’s party from Andhra Pradesh, and SAD from Punjab.
PM Narendra Modi has always been the face of the BJP. Many people have faith in the biggest political leader in India, and hence many people vote for the BJP. Recently, Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis announced that CM Eknath Shinde is firmly in the saddle, and there is no substance in reports saying a change in leadership is on the cards. He said that he is not contesting the Lok Sabha Elections and will be the party’s nominee from the Nagpur seat for the Assembly Elections.
On November 25, Devendra Fadnavis announced that the Mahayuti constituents, the BJP, the Shiv Sena's Shinde faction, and Ajit Pawar's NCP faction had almost finalised their seat-sharing formula for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The proposal suggests that the BJP will contest 26 seats, while the Sena and the NCP together will contest 22 seats. In total, Maharashtra has 48 LS seats.
Speaking of CM Shinde and Dy CM Pawar’s future, he said, “Only two things can happen now. Either they might get back with Uddhav Thackeray’s and Sharad Pawar’s sides after the elections, or they will have to align with the BJP completely, as the BJP will make sure that these leaders and their candidates contest the elections on the BJP’s symbol.”
On being asked if the Maratha Reservations issue can impact the current government’s chance of coming back to power, he said, “The issue of the Maratha Reservation and OBC Reservation is quite regional. The Maratha Reservation is limited to the region of Marathwada. The major issues like infrastructure development, farmers' suicide, and drought in the state will impact more in the upcoming Maharashtra elections.
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