According to a report by the National Commission, Maharashtra's proportion of the national population is predicted to decline in the coming years. The report provides population forecasts for India and each state between 2011 and 2036, based on the 2011 census.
The country's population is predicted to grow by 31.1 crore during this time, with Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, and Madhya Pradesh contributing 17 crore each.
These five states are expected to account for over 50% of India's demographic growth over the next 25 years. However, Maharashtra's predicted decline in proportion is a matter of concern.
The report forecasts a rise in Maharashtra's median age from 28.2 to 39.6 between 2011 and 2036 due to falling fertility and increasing life expectancy. It also predicts a decrease in crude birth rates (CBR) across India, including Maharashtra, with the state's CBR expected to fall from 15.2 to 10.4 by 2036.
At the same time, the state's crude death rate is projected to increase from 6.6 to 8. The report anticipates a decrease in Maharashtra's infant mortality rate from 25 in 2011 to 18 in 2036.
The report predicts an increase in urban population for Maharashtra. By 2036, 51.3% of Maharashtra's population is predicted to reside in cities, up from 45.8% in 2011. This trend is in line with the overall urbanisation of India.
Despite the expected increase in urban population, Maharashtra's sex ratio is projected to decrease from 929 in 2011 to 921 in 2036. This suggests a continuing preference for male children in the state, even though efforts are taken to eliminate gender discrimination.
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