Early signs suggest a possible post-monsoon cyclone, potentially named "Cyclone Tej", developing near Mumbai around October 22–23. The weather agency has turned its attention to the Arabian Sea, where a low-pressure area may be forming in the southeast, close to the equatorial zone.
Decent chance of Cyclone around 22-23 October in Central Arabian Sea. Still too early to say about its track after that. https://t.co/dSVG6OAPoO
— Mumbai Weather (@IndiaWeatherMan) October 16, 2023
Current forecasts suggest that the city is less likely to experience heavy rainfall due to this system. However, due to the cyclonic disturbance, nighttime temperatures in Mumbai may drop to 22–23°C. Temperatures in Pune are also expected to drop, with forecasts indicating a range of 16–17°C from October 22–25. The cyclone may bring rain to South Konkan.
A social media post by Mumbai Rains (@rushikesh_agre_) on Platform X indicates that the first post-monsoon cyclone may be brewing in the Arabian Sea. Weather authorities expect a low-pressure area (LPA) to form by this evening or tonight. If conditions remain favourable, this could intensify into a significant cyclone.
#Mumbai won't see much rain due to this, however night Temperatures will cool to 22-23°C as a side effect. #Pune will also see dip in temperatures, 16-17°C near 22-25 Oct.
— Mumbai Rains (@rushikesh_agre_) October 17, 2023
South Konkan can get rain due to this, less chances for Mumbai as said earlier.
Furthermore, Skymet Weather stated that warm Indian Ocean on account of positive IOD and marginally favoured MJO, together, may pop up a cyclonic disturbance shortly. Although it's too early for firm predictions, the report suggests that current trends point to a cyclonic circulation over the Southeast Arabian Sea around October 15.
While early forecasts suggest that a cyclone may form, its strength and path remain uncertain.
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