Govt Panel Says Third Wave of COVID-19 May Not Arrive Until October 2021

The second wave of the coronavirus pandemic in India continues to cause fatalities across states and union territories, while officials have also warned of a potential third wave of COVID-19 that could arrive later this year. Meanwhile, Maharashtra Health Minister Rajesh Tope said a few weeks ago that a third wave is expected between July-August this year. 

A three-member panel has now projected that the current wave of COVID-19 will see a decline by July this year. The panel consists of scientists from the Department of Science and Technology which is part of the Union Government’s Science Ministry. 

Scientists used the SUTRA (Susceptible, Undetected, Tested [positive] and Removed Approach) model to make these predictions, adding that the end of May will see the addition of nearly 1.5 lakh cases per day while the end of June is likely to see 20,000 cases per day across the country. 

Professor Manindra Agarwal from IIT Kanpur is one of the members of the panel. “States like Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Rajasthan, Kerala, Sikkim, Uttarakhand, Gujarat, Haryana besides Delhi and Goa have already seen their peak,” he said. 

As for the feared third wave of COVID-19, Agarwal maintained a fairly optimistic outlook saying, “It will be localised and many people will not be affected because they will enjoy immunity thanks to vaccination.” He added that the third wave may not arrive at least until October 2021.

While states like Maharashtra, UP, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Kerala, and others are witnessing a high number of cases, the SUTRA model suggests that some states are yet to witness their peaks in terms of COVID-19 cases. 

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Tamil Nadu is likely to witness a peak between May 29 to 31 whereas neighbouring Puducherry will likely see a peak in cases between May 19-20. Some states in the east are also expecting a peak by the end of this month. Assam may already be in the middle of its peak with experts predicting heavy cases between May 20 and 21. 

Tripura’s peak is expected to be witnessed between May 26 and 27 while Meghalaya could see its highest cases on May 30 as per the SUTRA model. Northern states like Punjab and Himachal Pradesh are expected to witness their peaks on May 22 and May 24.

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