Mumbai-based economists predict the city will have 35,000 COVID-19 cases by June

As the world struggles to understand the coronavirus crisis and tries to find a vaccine for it, two economists have published a study which states that the COVID-19 cases in Mumbai are likely to plateau at 35,000 by the first week of June.

The study uses logistic and not epidemiological modelling to predict the number of coronavirus cases in Maharashtra. According to economists, the number of coronavirus cases in Maharashtra will peak close to 50,000 cases by the end of May. The study conducted by Neeraj Hatekar from Mumbai school of Economics and Public Policy and Pallavi Belhekar from Smt MMK College of Commerce and Economics have based their study gathered on the data across the country and the world.

Hatekar and Belhekar also noted that the reason for the control of infections in the country is also a consequence of the majority of the cases being in populated cities. These cases have been concentrated in clustered across the urban region making it easier for the government to track the cases of COVID-19.

Hatekar further stated his worries elucidating that the main problem lies with the rural areas. If the cases were to spread to the villages then the pandemic will be very difficult to control for the government. The authors further cautioned against the second round of infections from the migrant workers who are returning to their homes in the villages.

The WHO recently spoke to the media on Wednesday stating that after the analysis of over five thousand strains of SARS-CoV-2 from at least 62 countries, they have noted that the virus is fairly stable but has gained some mutations including the changes in the genome that impacts the ‘spike protein’ that is used by the virus to infect the human cells. In a non-peer reviewed study led by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine states that it still remains unclear how the modifications in the strain are affecting the coronavirus. This becomes important for us to know and research the virus more to understand how it is impacting people all over the world.