COVID-19 second wave: Has the flattening of the curve started in Mumbai?

The number of new coronavirus cases in Mumbai has been falling over the last few days, a 43 per cent drop since April 14.

As of April 25, Mumbai recorded 5,542 new COVID-19 cases, its lowest number in April. Prior to that, the city had been recording an average of 8,000 cases daily since the beginning of March.

However, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) attributes this ‘success’ to the early diagnosis of the cases, increased testing and a strict lockdown.

Hence, the question here arises that is the flattening of the curve started in the city?

According to the data shared by the health department of BMC, 9,225 cases were reported on April 14, which dropped to 8,217 the following day, after which there was a slight increase -- 8,839 and 8,843 on April 16 and 17.

But, from April 18, cases dropped below 8,000 for the next five days, until April 24, when only 5,888 cases were reported in a single day.

With an average of 40,000 tests daily, the city has conducted 5.2 million tests so far, reports suggested.

Meanwhile, the reports also stated that while the testing in the week between April 18 to 24 has gone down, the positivity rate has gone down simultaneously.

The positivity rate in the first week between April 4 and 10 was around 20 per cent that went down between April 11 to 17 to around 18 per cent, followed by around 17 per cent between April 18 to 24.

According to the state health department data, between April 4 and April 10, 69,037 cases were reported followed by 190 deaths. During the same period, 3,41,614 tests were conducted.

Furthermore, in the next week between April 11 and April 17, 60,506 cases were reported followed by 357 deaths. During the same period, 335,187 tests were conducted. In the last week, between April 18 and April 24, 51,128 cases were reported followed by 425 deaths. In this period 297,738 tests were conducted.

Moreover, BMC officials also mentioned that the dip in the infection rate is due to an increase in the number of vaccinations.

A member of the COVID-19 task force said there was a rapid scale-up of tests and when Mumbai started testing more than 50,000 cases, the test positivity rate which was, 25 per cent a week or 10 days ago, is now starting to hover at 16-18 per cent. In the last 3-4 days, there is a trend of a plateauing effect and can be said that the flattening of the curve has started in the city and pockets of the state. He also hoped that the worst is over.

However, the civic body has maintained that the situation will have to be monitored until April 30, before claiming that the decline of the second wave in the city has started.